Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been categorized as “Insights”
Global financial markets are shrouded in uncertainty, and the risks to the downside remain pronounced. Stocks continue to waver amid a difficult stretch dating back to the end of July. And bond yields continue to spike to levels last seen nearly two decades ago. While it is reasonable that investors may wish to recoil amid the swirling geopolitical and market risks, drawing back and taking in the views across the capital market landscape provides constructive reasons to stay the course.
The world was shaken this past weekend by the sudden and unexpected outbreak of war in Israel. As we continue to watch closely as the geopolitical and humanitarian crisis unfolds, it is also understandable to wonder about the potential impact on capital markets going forward. And history provides a useful guide to our understanding of what to expect from here.
The period from mid-August to mid-November is a notorious time of year for capital markets. The pithy investment strategy “Sell in May and go away” is based on the idea of avoiding this stretch of time of year in stocks and picking back up after Halloween. And 2023 has been no exception in this regard. While U.S. stocks had a rousing summer through the end of July, the more than two months since have been particularly rough not only for stocks but even more so for bonds. How much lower should we reasonably expect stocks and bonds to go from here?
It has been an interesting and eventful year so far. Heading into 2023, it was widely expected that the U.S. was headed toward recession and that the equity markets would face continued volatility amid the uncertain economic outlook. But in the nine months since, we’ve seen a resilient U.S. economy that continues to grow at a healthy rate and a U.S. stock market that has advanced by double-digits year to date. Nonetheless, the markets are still not without meaningful risks as evidenced by stock and bond market performance over the last couple of months. As a result, it is worth exploring what we might reasonably expect from capital markets as we move through the final three months of the calendar year.
It’s back. After spending much of the year watching pricing pressures abate, investor concerns are rising about a renewed rise in inflation. It’s easy to see why – U.S. economic growth has been much more resilient than expected, the labor market remains tight, wage pressures are rising, and oil prices are spiking to the upside. And summing all investor fears, …
The U.S. stock market continues to hold its ground as summer gradually turns to fall across capital markets. While the headline benchmark S&P 500 Index has been middling at best since the end of July, its overall performance over the past year has been impressive and if anything stocks are continuing to hold their ground following particularly strong early summer …
The U.S. stock market has hit a rough patch in recent weeks. Just as notable has been the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields over the past month. While it is understandable for U.S. investors to look inward in seeking explanations for why both stocks and bonds are performing poorly as of late despite a domestic economy that remains solid …
The dog days of summer have descended on capital markets in recent weeks. Following a blistering rally that began with the government resolution to the banking crises in March and accelerated as we moved into the summer months, U.S. stocks have been fading to the downside since the start of August. What can we take away from this recent pullback …
The primary risk for financial markets in the second half of the year in this Chief Market Strategist’s view is a renewed rise in inflation. Over the past year, capital markets have been cheered by the notion that the surge in inflation that began in 2021 and peaked in mid-2022 is increasingly fading into the rearview mirror, thus enabling the …
When monitoring capital markets, strange and unexpected relationships can exist between two market segments. Correlation without causation? Perhaps, but these bedfellows often come together for understandable reasons when considered more thoughtfully. Three particular relationships stand out today as worth monitoring for risk and opportunity as we continue through the second half of the year and beyond. The NASDAQ 100 and …
